Speaker: Prof. Dr. Muhammad Bilal Idrees, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, National University of Sciences and Technology, Risalpur, Pakistan

Contact: Xiaolin Zhang (zhangxiaolin@dlmu.edu.cn)

Abstract: Climate change and socioeconomic development are intensifying mismatches between water availability and demand, challenging water security. Inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) redistributes water from water-abundant to water-scarce regions, but its effectiveness and sustainability remain uncertain. This study examines China’s IBWT system by linking changes in water scarcity to the environmental, economic, and social consequences of water transfers. Water scarcity is assessed across 76 sub-basins from 2025 to 2099 under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and two climate-forcing scenarios, with attention to water stress and its spatial inequality. China’s transfer capacity is projected to increase from 48.5 billion m³ per year in 2016 to 80.3 billion m³ by 2040. The results indicate that IBWT can reduce spatial disparities in water scarcity, although its effectiveness varies under different climate and socioeconomic conditions. The analysis further evaluates the multidimensional impacts of nearly 140 projects, with a design capacity of approximately 80 billion m³ per year by 2050, across 76 sub-basins and ten socioeconomic–climate (SSP x RCP) scenarios. Over the period of 2025–2099, IBWTs will the improve environmental flows in up to 21 of 38 recipient sub-basins. Along with this, these projects will generate net economic benefits of approximately US$83.75 billion, and provide domestic water-supply potential equivalent to nearly 498 million people annually. However, these benefits are accompanied by potential ecological stress and economic and social opportunity costs in source sub-basins, particularly during dry conditions. Overall, IBWT can help mitigate water scarcity, but it also redistributes benefits and risks. Achieving sustainable water security therefore requires climate-responsive transfer operations, environmental-flow safeguards, and equitable benefit-sharing between source and recipient regions.

Keywords: Inter-basin water transfer; Water scarcity; Climate change; Environmental flows; Spatial inequality.

Bio: Dr. Muhammad Bilal Idrees is an Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Pakistan. His research focuses on hydrology, water resources management, climate change impacts assessment, machine learning applications in hydrological modelling, reservoir sedimentation management, and inter-basin water transfers. His work particularly explores the implications of climate change for water availability, water resources sustainability, and hydrological resilience, with an emphasis on developing data-driven approaches to address emerging water challenges. He received his Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Hanyang University, South Korea. He subsequently conducted postdoctoral research at Dalian University of Technology, China. His research integrates hydrological modelling, artificial intelligence, and climate scenario analysis to support sustainable water resources planning and management. He has published 25 research papers in international peer-reviewed journals and presented his research at several international conferences.